Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.130374 0.143593 0.157116 0.171956 0.187755 0.204044 0.222079
2024-12-15 0.107566 0.127293 0.148455 0.172720 0.199645 0.228486 0.261590
2024-12-22 0.088141 0.111617 0.137932 0.169307 0.205390 0.245290 0.292443
2024-12-29 0.078508 0.105374 0.136626 0.175097 0.220612 0.272197 0.334521
2025-01-05 0.070106 0.099348 0.134537 0.179109 0.233160 0.295722 0.372722
2025-01-12 0.062614 0.093455 0.131775 0.181597 0.243369 0.316206 0.407304
2025-01-19 0.055648 0.087405 0.128103 0.182341 0.250988 0.333310 0.437770
2025-01-26 0.054345 0.088614 0.133525 0.194439 0.272650 0.367540 0.489141
2025-02-02 0.049673 0.084704 0.131846 0.197102 0.282273 0.386980 0.522649
2025-02-09 0.046030 0.081864 0.131285 0.200975 0.293285 0.408099 0.558313
2025-02-16 0.041476 0.077251 0.127920 0.200793 0.298821 0.422234 0.585312
2025-02-23 0.040370 0.077684 0.131523 0.210011 0.316705 0.452124 0.632258
2025-03-02 0.038992 0.077787 0.134911 0.219414 0.335576 0.484288 0.683491
2025-03-09 0.035261 0.073844 0.132209 0.220212 0.342947 0.501814 0.716516
2025-03-16 0.030644 0.067983 0.126277 0.216117 0.343472 0.510358 0.738118
2025-03-23 0.029139 0.067235 0.127983 0.222966 0.359046 0.538783 0.785625
2025-03-30 0.027283 0.065678 0.128301 0.227710 0.371709 0.563464 0.828509
2025-04-06 0.025207 0.063505 0.127480 0.230650 0.381803 0.584772 0.867153
2025-04-13 0.022914 0.060673 0.125394 0.231529 0.388890 0.602035 0.900581
2025-04-20 0.023350 0.063126 0.132036 0.245816 0.415327 0.645731 0.969325
2025-04-27 0.021707 0.061314 0.131471 0.248954 0.425719 0.667698 1.009417
2025-05-04 0.020442 0.060126 0.131859 0.253517 0.438180 0.692569 1.053555
2025-05-11 0.018506 0.057322 0.129297 0.253302 0.443574 0.707712 1.084734